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	<title>Alex Kelleher's Blog &#187; terminal</title>
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	<link>http://blog.alexkelleher.com</link>
	<description>Psychology, data, future gazing, digital marketing and the internet.</description>
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		<title>The Oracle</title>
		<link>http://blog.alexkelleher.com/2008/08/04/the-oracle/</link>
		<comments>http://blog.alexkelleher.com/2008/08/04/the-oracle/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 04 Aug 2008 21:21:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[software]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[dumb]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[photoshop]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[sas]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[terminal]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.alexkelleher.com/?p=102</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I can remember as far back as 1996 when Larry Ellison started to proselytise the &#8220;network computer&#8221; &#8211; a dumb terminal that provided an interface to processing power that was stored centrally.  it was going to cost $500, which back then seemed a snip for access to that sort of processing power. Here&#8217;s a quote [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I can remember as far back as 1996 when Larry Ellison <a href="http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0CMN/is_n2_v33/ai_17942123">started to proselytise the &#8220;network computer&#8221;</a> &#8211; a dumb terminal that provided an interface to processing power that was stored centrally.  it was going to cost $500, which back then seemed a snip for access to that sort of processing power.</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s a quote from that article:</p>
<blockquote><p>Oracle has already acknowledged that the initial price target was ambitious, so it is planning a family of devices, including a high-end machine and an entry-level network computer. The high-end model will reportedly have a keyboard, mouse, flat-panel monochrome or color screen, modem and connection for ATM or ISDN, video conferencing microphone and camera and 4 Mb each of dynamic RAM and flash RAM in a two-pound, laptop-sized box. It will employ a version of the ARM RISC processor from Apple&#8217;s Newton MessagePad, giving it the power of an early 486 machine.</p></blockquote>
<p>Well, you&#8217;d expect a bit more than 4Mb of RAM and a monochrome screen for your $500 these days.  But this isn&#8217;t meant to be an exercise in nostalgia.  What Larry envisaged is coming true, a little bit more each day.  The apps we can access online are getting increasingly powerful.  And I don&#8217;t just mean the things that we couldn&#8217;t run on a home PC (eg Google&#8217;s index), but apps we&#8217;d traditionally run locally.  Of course, it&#8217;s all in a bit more of a distributed / cloud-style network of the 21st Century, but still.  Some notable examples are:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.photoshop.com/express" target="_blank">Photoshop Express</a>.  The app that made me think of this whole note &#8211; and the single most impressive Flash browser based product port I&#8217;ve seen</li>
</ul>
<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.photoshop.com/express" target="_blank"><img class="size-full wp-image-103 aligncenter" title="pexpress" src="http://blog.alexkelleher.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/pexpress.jpg" alt="Photoshop Express" width="400" height="299" /></a></p>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.google.com/apps/business/index.html">Google Apps</a> &#8211; becoming more and more of an Office-competitor every day</li>
<li><a href="http://www.apple.com/appletv/">Apple TV</a> &#8211; one day (soon) probably replacing most set-top boxes and linearly broadcast TV (quite a way to go with download speeds and HD though)</li>
</ul>
<p>There&#8217;s a lot also happening in online desktops, but I&#8217;m less convinced of those in the short term.</p>
<p>Ironically, as all these apps become better and more powerful, so do the PCs we access them with.  In fact, hardware is becoming so much of a commodity (viz Carphone Warehouse moving into the &#8220;<a href="http://shop.carphonewarehouse.com/aol_eligibility.php">free laptop</a>&#8221; game) that there isn&#8217;t any need any more to go &#8220;dumb&#8221;.  We can have both &#8211; powerful local processing for games and when we want to be standalone, and network-based apps for the always up-to-date versions, and access-from-anywhere-ability.</p>
<p>Going fully network-based is going to take a long while to happen, but with certain apps (TV, for instance &#8211; or where the business model means we get great apps for free online), it&#8217;ll happen very soon.  Larry, the Oracle, probably feels vindicated.</p>
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