Humans tend to make connections between things, even when those connections don’t exist. Our brains are constantly trying to rule-build and organise, and often get it wrong.
Today for a while, when a plane passed overhead (they do often where I am), the bulb on my desk lamp dimmed. I, of course, assumed the two events were related. The fact is, planes passed over every couple of minutes, and the light only dimmed every half hour, and I’ve just now found it’s because I was kicking the cable under the table without knowing it. They’re unconnected…
That’s what psychologists call an illusory correlation – the false connection of two things, based on data. (it’s also a tongue-twister).
Sod’s law (Murphy’s Law) is a example – we tend to connect negative events, and ignore positive (or neutral) ones. How often have you been driving along, only to be confronted at the top of a hill and round a bend with a truck that’s halfway across the road? “Always happens at the top of a hill and round a bend, typical!” you’ll think. Obviously, 99% of the time it doesn’t, but we’ll remember the times it does.
So why is this important? Well, it usually isn’t, because we muddle along anyway. It can get odd when unexplained events (lights in the sky) are connected with unconfirmed causes (UFOs from outer space). Or when “there’s no smoke without fire”, which has probably convicted a fair number of innocent people.
My interest is because at my company, Cognitive Match (of which Favy is now a part) we’re focussed on ways of making REAL connections in observed data. And equally I guess uncovering the “illusory” ones…
My thoughts about targeting, psychology and data - all things that drive my company, 